Científicos kuwaitíes sitúan o Teito do petróleo convencional dentro de 4 anos

Nashawi predí o peak oil para o 2014Segundo informa hoxe a axencia Europa Press, un grupo de científicos de Kuwait veñen de publicar un estudo na revista ACS Energy & Fuels que actualizando o modelo de Hubbert da curva de extracción de petróleo, calculan que o Teito mundial se ha producir en 2014, 10 anos antes do que algunhas fontes predicían, pero tamén varios anos máis tarde do que outras fontes teñen calculado.

Uno de los modelos de pronóstico más famoso, llamado el modelo de Hubbert (…) ha ganado en popularidad y ha sido usado para predecir la producción mundial de petróleo. Sin embargo, estudios recientes sugieren que el modelo es insuficiente para dar cuenta de los ciclos de producción petrolera más compleja de algunos países. Los ciclos pueden ser fuertemente influenciados por los cambios de tecnología, la política y otros factores, afirman.

El nuevo estudio dirigido por Nashawi Ibrahim describe el desarrollo de una nueva versión del modelo de Hubbert, que da cuenta de estas tendencias de producción individuales para proporcionar una más realista y precisa previsión de producción de petróleo. Usando el nuevo modelo, los científicos evaluaron las tendencias de la producción de petróleo de 47 grandes países productores, que suministran la mayor parte de petróleo crudo del mundo. Se estima que a nivel mundial la producción de crudo convencional alcanzará su pico en 2014, años antes de lo previsto por algunas fuentes.

Los científicos también demostraron que las reservas de petróleo del mundo se están agotando a un ritmo del 2,1 por ciento al año. El nuevo modelo podría ayudar a informar las decisiones relacionadas con la energía y el debate de política pública, que sugieren.

Lembramos unha vez máis que segundo o Informe Hirsch, precísanse 20 anos de anticipación na adopción de medidas para evitar graves consecuencias do Teito na economía e na sociedade.

3 thoughts on “Científicos kuwaitíes sitúan o Teito do petróleo convencional dentro de 4 anos

  1. 11 Marzo, 2010 at 5:21 p.m.

    Polo que parece o estudo xa fora publicado en decembro pasado, ou polo menos un adianto del.

  2. 11 Marzo, 2010 at 5:33 p.m.

    É cando menos curioso que a data cadre co aviso da AIE para a mega-crise de subministro.

  3. 11 Marzo, 2010 at 5:35 p.m.

    Copiamos o resume dos propios autores:

    The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically plunged to less than $50/bbl by the end of the year losing more than 64% of the maximum price in less than three months period. The supply of crude oil to the international market oscillated to follow suite according to the law of supply and demand. This behavior affected oil production in all exporting countries. Nonetheless, the demand for crude oil in some developing countries, such as China and India, has increased in the past few years because of the rapid growth in the transportation sector in addition to the absence of viable economic alternatives for fossil fuel. The rapid growth in fuel demand has forced the policy makers worldwide to include uninterrupted crude oil supply as a vital priority in their economic and strategic planning.

    Even though forecasting should be handled with extreme caution, it is always desirable to look ahead as far as possible to make an intellectual judgment on the future supplies of crude oil. Over the years, accurate prediction of oil production was confronted by fluctuating ecological, economical, and political factors, which imposed many restrictions on its exploration, transportation, and supply and demand. The objective of this study is to develop a forecasting model to predict world crude oil supply with better accuracy than the existing models. Even though our approach originates from Hubbert model, it overcomes the limitations and restrictions associated with the original Hubbert model. As opposed to Hubbert single-cycle model, our model has more than one cycle depending on the historical oil production trend and known oil reserves. The presented method is a viable tool to predict the peak oil production rate and time. The model is simple, accurate, and totally data driven, which allows a continuous updating once new data are available. The analysis of 47 major oil producing countries estimates the world’s ultimate crude oil reserve by 2140 BSTB and the remaining recoverable oil by 1161 BSTB. The world production is estimated to peak in 2014 at a rate of 79 MMSTB/D. OPEC has remaining reserve of 909 BSTB, which is about 78% of the world reserves. OPEC production is expected to peak in 2026 at a rate of 53 MMSTB/D. On the basis of 2005 world crude oil production and current recovery techniques, the world oil reserves are being depleted at an annual rate of 2.1%.